A couple weeks ago I fell into a real downer mood because of doomsday phropecies about the end of oil. The site that really put me in the mood was:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/It talks about economic collapse and anarchy as the system we built our society around comes crashing down. The page seems almost all negative and any arguments about possible solutions are brought up and then shown how they're only pipe dreams. Interestingly enough, the same page turned me onto a documentary called
The End of Suburbia, which had a more positive spin. The end of cheap oil is a reality that we're going to have to face and it's going to be soon. The question is, though, are we preparing ourselves for it? Not really.
There's not going to be an end of oil but we're about to hit a period that they refer to as
peak oil, where we hit the top of a bell curve and and start the downward path when it's going to become harder and harder to extract less and less oil. The United States hit its peak oil production in 1971. The global peak oil is predicted to happen by 2010. And our society and the American dream are built around having an endless supply of this oil. What will happen to the 3-bedroom, 2-car garage house in the suburbs when you can't commute to work, the grocery store, Wal-Mart, etc.? And what happens when the food stops arriving because it's not feasible to keep transporting it using our extensive highway system?
What we're going to see is the move back to more centralized living where we can access the necessities of life by walking to them. We will start developing communities again where you know your neighbors and spend more time outside than in your house plugged into the TV or internet. But who knows how the transition will go when the crunch time arrives and we haven't prepared for it because we're ignoring the reality of the situation.
It would be nice if we had a leader that would take a stand and do what is necessary to prepare for our future. I'm reading a book right now, which I'll talk about in another post, and the author brings up John F. Kennedy as an example of a leader who set down a goal and made sure we achieved it. He said that he wanted a man on the moon in ten years and the United States was going to do what it takes to make it happen. And it did. So, as the author continues, this is Bush's opportunity to either turn his presidency around and go down in history as a visionary or continue in the path we all see as more likely. To go down as a visionary he could say that in ten years he wants the United States to be energy independent and we're going do what it takes to make that happen. If we spent $100 billion towards that goal instead of a war to secure oil scraps for our future, it could be a reality.
But, unfortunately, that most likely won't happen. Instead we will probably continue with our war in Iraq, which was never about WMDs but about giving ourselves a presence in the middle east because it's going to be the last place on earth that has oil and we need it will be ours.
That's kind of a downer way to end this but I'm actually feeling a lot better about it. It's going to be an exciting time, the end of an era, and the beginning of a new one. Granted there may be some hard and tumultuous times but we're an adaptable species and I'm sure we'll pull through it. And as my friend,
Mike, said when I was feeling blue about all this:
1) It might be completely wrong... Hopefully!
2) It's good to use the possibility of it being correct to reexamine our values, don't you think? The thing to do is to become more ecologically and conservation minded right now, live by example.
3) Hopefully, if it does happen, there will be more time for juggling :-)